Texas Economic Outlook for 2023
Dr. Jim Gaines, former chief economist of the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, recently gave his economic outlook for the state of Texas for 2023. The general tenor of his speech was that the Texas economy is very healthy, and we should expect continued growth throughout this year.
There were several interesting points I would like to highlight.
- The New York Fed estimates that the U.S. has an 8% chance of a recession this year. To me this seems low, but of course I am not a professional economist. The interesting point to me is that this means there is a 92% chance we will NOT experience an economic recession in 2023. I like those odds!
- In the Texas housing market, most prices are still up year over year. One of the areas where prices are actually a little lower is the luxury home market. If you are shopping the $1 million market or higher, there is a good chance you can get a good deal right now on a home.
- In 2021, Texas added 326,000 people to the population. In 2022 we added 470,000. And, Texas topped the 30 million mark for the first time in 2022. This underscore the fact that demand for housing in Texas will continue to be strong. Naturally, strong demand means prices will likely keep going up in the state of Texas.
- In 2022, Texas gained over 650,000 non-farm jobs. This number was by far the highest in the country. Jim pointed out that in 2021 Texas recovered all the jobs lost to the pandemic, and we are now well ahead of where we were prior to COVID.
All this points to a continued strong housing market for the state, and especially for the DFW real estate market. At the moment, we have an environment favorable to both buying and selling homes. If you have been on the fence, this is honestly a good time to make a move.