Harbaugh Real Estate

Home Prices in DFW Rose 2.15% in 2023

It's now official: Dallas/Ft. Worth home prices rose in 2023.

A row of houses

The December Case-Shiller numbers simply put the exclamation point on the MLS data we've already seen. We already knew median home prices rose last year per the MLS figures. Now, Case-Shiller (with its robust measure of home prices that eliminates anomalies that can show up in the raw MLS data) has demonstrated beyond question that DFW home prices rose in 2023.

The Case-Shiller Details

For the DFW metro area, home prices rose 2.15% between December 2022 and December 2023. The national reading was up a more modest 5.53%. Month over month (i.e., from November 2023 to December 2023), DFW home prices declined by -0.66%, and nationally they declined by -0.37%.

As a reminder, the normal real estate market cycle sees prices decline during the late fall and winter months and then pick up again as spring starts to bring more buyers and sellers into the marketplace. The monthly declines from November to December are completely in line with normal home price action. The more important figure to pay attention to is the year-over-year number.

Implications of Higher Home Prices

Case-Shiller Index for December 2023

Just take a quick peek at the 2023 price chart above. Clearly, you can see that DFW home prices are higher on the right side of the chart than on the left. With these final year-end numbers for 2023, we can now definitively say that there has not been a yearly decline in home prices in our area since 2011.

Having said that, there have been times mid-year when prices were down year over year. We especially saw this last year in the middle of the year because the numbers had been so high in early to mid-2022 before higher interest rates really took hold.

I think this simply continues to demonstrate that the DFW housing market is very healthy and is in no danger of collapsing in any way whatsoever. And, this is in spite of mortgage rates remaining elevated.

For even more context, if you look at the difference in home prices between June 2022, when they peaked, and December 2023, there is only a -5.63% variance. I only bring this up because it is the most distorted view one can possibly get of the DFW housing market. In other words, if you happened to have purchased a home in June 2022 and then were forced to sell in December 2023, you'd likely only be down just over 5%. The point I am making is that any way you look at it, DFW home prices are strong, and almost no one is losing money or net worth in our housing market.

Conclusion

To summarize, housing prices in Dallas/Ft. Worth rose just over 2% in 2023, marking the 12th straight year of gains our area has seen.

From a purely financial perspective, and assuming a homebuyer has the means, buying a home today will most likely benefit that buyer more than waiting to buy in the future. And, if a buyer waits, the likelihood will be that buying on a given date in the future will be better than waiting even longer. This is simply a consequence of the long term housing shortage that we have in this area, which is highly unlikely to go away any time in the near future - and perhaps not even in our lifetimes.

The Dallas/Ft. Worth housing market is healthy and strong. If you have been considering buying a home, I encourage you to start taking concrete steps now. Call your lender to start the process of getting pre-approved for a mortgage. Call me (or your Realtor if you already have one) to start the process of searching for the right home for you. This is as good a time as you are going to get to purchase a home!