Home Prices in DFW Declined in September
Although prices are continuing to decline, sales are showing a marked rebound.
Key Takeaways
- Prices are continuing to slide in DFW.
- Sales are improving.
- Supply is starting to move lower.
Introduction
First off, I’d like to wish everyone a very happy Thanksgiving! I hope you and your loved ones have a wonderful holiday week and that your bellies remain full.
On another introductory note, I want to let you know that I’ve created another blog in case any of you are interested. The blog you currently read at harbaughrealestate.com will remain in place and continue to be a great source of local real estate news.
My new blog resides on my leeharbaugh.com website. For those of you who may not know, I am a musician and author in addition to being a real estate professional. My new blog will allow me to explore numerous non–real estate topics such as music, spirituality, my experience with the death penalty, and who knows what else. Please check it out and feel free to let me know what you think!
Now, on to the latest DFW real estate market details…
DFW Home Prices Continue to Drift Lower
Per the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home prices in DFW continued their multi-month decline in September. Metro-wide, prices were down 1.33% year-over-year and 0.76% month-over-month. Prices are now 0.26% lower year-to-date. It’s starting to look like we may see our first calendar-year price decline since 2011!
Nationwide, home prices increased by 1.29% in September. However, quite a few metro areas saw prices decline. In addition to Dallas–Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Tampa all posted lower prices in September. On a month-over-month basis, all 20 metro areas tracked by the index recorded declines.
Home Sales Are Improving
Although home prices have been retreating, sales figures have shown signs of life over the past two to three months. According to the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, nearly 7,700 homes traded hands in September — up from about 7,300 in September 2024. While this is still far below the volume seen in 2020 and 2021, the increase is encouraging. It means more people are willing and able to buy homes at today’s prices and mortgage rates.
DFW Home Supply Moves Lower
To underscore the increase in sales, the supply of homes on the market declined slightly in September. Months of supply fell from 4.74 in August to 4.6 in September. While this isn’t a dramatic drop, it does reflect the pickup in demand.
As a reminder, economists consider a months-of-supply reading of 6.0 to be a balanced market. Anything below that indicates a seller’s market (buyers outnumber sellers), and anything above indicates a buyer’s market (sellers outnumber buyers). That said, if you ask most buyers and sellers right now whether it feels like a buyer’s or seller’s market, they’ll likely say it feels like a buyer’s market. Homes sold so quickly just a few years ago that today’s more normal conditions feel slow — though by historical standards, they really aren’t.
Bringing It All Together
I see the current Dallas–Fort Worth market as a sort of Goldilocks market — not too hot and not too cold. Many sellers feel frustrated because it’s taking longer to sell homes than it has in recent years. Sellers are also often accepting prices that feel lower than they should be. Yet most sellers are still coming out ahead. Unless someone bought their home in the past two or three years and now needs to sell, nearly everyone has substantial equity and solid gains locked in.
On the buy side, many buyers — or would-be buyers — are still struggling to afford a new home. Prices have come down slightly, but they remain much higher than before COVID, and mortgage rates haven’t fallen very much. Prices and rates are better than they were a year ago, but they still aren’t where many buyers need them to be. However, for some, the combination of slightly lower rates, slightly lower prices, and more negotiating leverage makes this an excellent time to shop.
Overall, the Dallas–Fort Worth real estate market is healthy. Prices have softened a bit, but sales volume is improving, and supply has begun to edge downward. As we head into the holidays, we may continue to see some price softening, but homes are clearly still selling. I encourage any of you considering buying or selling not to step back because of the current market. Despite what you may see in the news, the market is in good shape and should remain so for the foreseeable future.